Production at French nuclear power plants is improving and gas stocks are almost full. This winter, the risk of energy shortages is decreasing in France, but sobriety remains essential. Explanations.
Electricity: low risk of outages for winter 2023-2024
Can the French electricity network relive a situation as tense as it was a year ago this winter? The risk is low, according to RTE, the electricity transmission network manager in France. Its forecasts for the fall and winter look much better than a year ago, when the risk of temporary power cuts, also called load shedding, increased sharply due to low nuclear production. “All parameters are evolving favorably compared to last year,” RTE declared in June.
Hydroelectricity is the second source of electricity production in France and the hydraulic stocks of the dams are at levels considered very satisfactory. As for the nuclear sector, the number of closed reactors has decreased considerably over the past year. The lights are therefore rather green on the production side.
Gas: the scenario of a harsh winter always feared…
The risks of a natural gas shortage in France for the winter of 2023-2024 also seem quite low. First of all because the level of gas stocks in Europe is high. European Union countries are aligned with the objective of 90% stocks filled at the end of summer. As of July 18, storage sites in the European Union were more than 82% full, and around 70% in France .
Other good news is that France will have a new LNG terminal in September, with the floating stock from Le Havre. Enough to significantly increase the capacity to import LNG (liquefied natural gas) into the country, transported by ships from the United States, Africa or the Middle East in particular.
However, with natural gas prices returning to normal in Europe, consumption could start to rise again from the fall. In the meantime, prices on the markets fell below €30/MWh during July, compared to nearly €240/MWh a year earlier. A very harsh winter with a rebound in gas consumption, however, remains a feared scenario .
To avoid gas or electricity shortages, sobriety remains essential
This winter, sobriety will remain the general watchword for businesses and communities, particularly for the consumption of natural gas. “Efforts for sobriety must continue to facilitate maximum filling of storage facilities in anticipation of a potentially cold winter of 2023-2024,” said GRTgaz, one of the two major gas transporters in France.
Last winter, the reduction in natural gas consumption linked to the collective effort for sobriety reached nearly 13% in France according to Engie, 9% for electricity. Electric sobriety would even have made it possible, according to RTE, to avoid twelve red Ecowatt signals (see below), and therefore possible temporary power cuts on the networks.
To help consumers anticipate possible tension situations on the networks, public authorities and the main network managers have put in place energy “barometer” tools since last year: Ecowatt , launched by RTE, for the electricity network, and Ecogaz , created by GRTgaz, for the natural gas network.
For this winter, RTE estimated that the main sources of electricity savings would be found in the tertiary sector, through energy management and building management in particular.